Analysis: Is Carlos Alcaraz's new serve working?

Jose Morón | 17 Mar 2025 | 15.20

Analysis: Is the new serve of Carlos Alcaraz working? Photo: Getty

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Carlos Alcaraz made some changes to his serve mechanics for this new season. After some refining in previous seasons, for 2025, he aimed for a smoother motion, eliminating stops during the ball toss and serve preparation phase, while adding a bit more power to his serve. After three and a half months of competition, we can draw several conclusions.

Following Carlos's recent losses on the circuit, many point to the serve as one of the culpritsfor the Spaniard's lack of complete comfort in matches. Alcaraz himself, especially during the Australian Open, mentioned that he still needed time to adapt to the new mechanics, sometimes giving him an advantage in a match, while at other times, it was something on his mind hindering his fluid play.

Comparison with the 2024 season

Thanks to exclusive data provided to Punto de Break by TennisViz Insights and TDI Data, we can compare Carlitos's serve metrics for the entire 2024 season with the numbers from the current 2025 season. From this, we can draw several conclusions.

As we can observe, in terms of the average serve grade overall, Carlos has not changed a thing, maintaining an average of 7.9 that keeps him in line with the circuit average. The average speed of his first serve remains unchanged at 121 miles per hour. There is a slight shift in the first serve in percentage inside, increasing from 64% to 65%, but this is not significantly noteworthy.

One significant change is in precision. Alcaraz now connects his first serve 61 centimeters from the lines, compared to 65 centimeters last year. This indicates a move towards hitting the lines more, taking more risks, and aiming for more direct aces. Although still somewhat below the circuit average (58cm), it seems that this new serve has added more aggression and fluency to his first serve.

Regarding the second serve, there is a shift. Firstly, the speed has decreased by over 3 km/h on average, resulting in 2.4% less effectiveness with the second serve. This effectiveness measures the percentage of times the serve gives the player an advantage. This means Carlos is gaining fewer advantages with his second serve compared to the previous year.

The most noticeable decline in his second serve is in the 2nd serve +1, where he is now forced to defend 2% more of the time. Carlos is a player who seeks to take the initiative at all times, from the serve+1 to the return+1, meaning the first shot after the serve or the return. Even with his second serve, known as one of the best with the kick he puts on it, causing serious trouble for his opponents. However, it seems he has lost some strength in this aspect recently.

In fact, he faces a 0.9% increase in winners against him when delivering a second serve. Currently, his second serve is more vulnerable than in previous years. It may not be solely due to the new mechanics, but opponents are aware that this is an exploitable area, with several capable of taking advantage, such as Novak Djokovic. Djokovic left him with only 37% of points won with the second serve in the Australian Open quarter-finals, marking Carlos's lowest in 2025 and in several months. Lehecka in Doha, or Machac in Shanghai, were others who effectively targeted Alcaraz's second serves.

The issue of having a more attackable second serve is that opponents notice and start moving in closer to return, putting Alcaraz in more trouble. If the opponent is a great returner, quick-handed, capable of generating a deep and powerful shot off the return, Carlos will face difficulties with this shot.

In 2025, Carlos also commits 1.8% more double faults. In summary, with his new serve mechanics, Carlos seems to gain a slight advantage with the first serve, but the second has become more vulnerable, putting him in a defensive position more often than in the previous year. The Spaniard needs to figure out the tactics to employ with his new service, especially concerning his second serves, to prevent this trend from escalating and opponents from exploiting it more throughout this season.