Final Analysis of the ATP Monte Carlo 2025: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Fernando Murciego | 12 Apr 2025 | 21.50

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti, ATP Monte Carlo final 2025. Source: Sky Sports

* You can watch and bet on this match live here..

Whenever we reach the final of a major tennis tournament, I ask myself the same question: is this the best possible final? At Masters 1000 Monte Carlo 2025, we will have Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Musetti dressed to the nines for the last dance, although I have some doubts in answering the question posed. Certainly, the Spaniard is an absolute reference on the red clay, expected to dominate it throughout this decade, but he will be facing a player who fights for every victory and endures almost every round. Will he have enough fuel to bring down the heavy favorite? Let's delve into the details and make a prediction in the end.

For status, let's start by reviewing Alcaraz's journey. A player who had never won a match in the Principality and who tomorrow, at the very least, will leave with the silver around his neck. Victories over Fran Cerúndolo (3-6, 6-0, 6-1), Daniel Altmaier (6-3, 6-1), Arthur Fils (4-6, 7-5, 6-3), and Alejandro Davidovich (7-6, 6-4) have propelled him to fight for glory. However, the clear turning point came in the famous 0-40 against the Frenchman in the quarterfinals, a moment when his life in the tournament hung by a thread. From there, he emerged stronger, with the look of a winner, of someone unbeatable, but now it's time to put theory into practice. A character development that has followed all the steps, although now it remains to shine on the most important day, where true mettle is demonstrated.

And on the other side, there's Musetti, playing with fire since stepping on the court for the first time. Five wins, all in the third set, all narrowly escaping: Bu Yunchaokete (4-6, 7-5, 6-3), Jiri Lehecka (1-6, 7-5, 6-2), Matteo Berrettini (6-3, 6-3), Stefanos Tsitsipas (1-6, 6-3, 6-4), and Alex De Minaur (1-6, 6-4, 7-6). A tremendous merit for a man who hadn't been displaying his best tennis, seemingly far from showing the confidence needed to get out of trouble as significant as losing the first set. Each of his comebacks will be remembered, gathering valuable experiences for tomorrow's final. Regardless of the final score, I don't think the Italian will be intimidated. It will be his first Masters 1000 final, on his beloved clay court, but against one of the toughest opponents... or maybe not?

To this day, only four men can boast of defeating Carlos Alcaraz in a professional final. One of them is the Italian, the first to show the Murcian that finals can also be lost. It happened in Hamburg 2022, again in three fateful sets. That was Musetti's first professional title, the first time he beat the Spaniard, in their first encounter [...] Since then, nothing. From Roland Garros 2023 (round of 16), Beijing 2023 (round of 16), and Miami 2024 (round of 16) turned the tables for Carlitos, leading 3-1 in the H2H, although 1-1 on clay. Will he be able to avenge that final from three seasons ago? You won't find any coherent forecast that says otherwise, but this is tennis, my friends, never take anything for granted.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER

In the list of factors to consider, I might point out Lolo's fatigue as one of the main concerns. There's a high risk of him being exhausted by Sunday, lacking the necessary freshness to face the ball rhythm of an Alcaraz who doesn't usually play finals: he tends to win them. On the other hand, we all know the damage the Spaniard can do if he connects his reverse forehand against his opponent's one-handed backhand, that masterful play we've seen Rafa Nadal execute against Roger Federer many times, although even they have provided some exceptions to the rule. It will be dangerous if both accept their roles before entering the court, that of a clear favorite - almost obliged to win - and that of an underdog, with nothing to lose, just looking to enjoy his first Masters 1000 final. For the sake of both, especially one, it's better to leave those labels off the board.

Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz face off in the Monte Carlo 2025 final.

Looking at historical achievements, Alcaraz has already become the 12th Spaniard in history to reach the final of the Monegasque temple, so tomorrow he will seek to join those who went a step further and became champions: Manuel Orantes, Sergi Bruguera, Carlos Moyá, Juan Carlos Ferrero, and Rafael Nadal. As for the Italian, only two precedents related to compatriots: Corrado Barazzutti's final in 1977 (lost to a certain Björn Borg) and Fabio Fognini's title six seasons ago, so far the Italian to reign as champion in Monte Carlo. Who will succeed Tsitsipas in the hall of fame?

Considering the rankings, this duel also presents a clear incentive for both contenders. A victory for Alcaraz lifts him back to World No. 2, displacing a disoriented Zverev who has been lost for several months. This sorpasso is crucial for upcoming draws, although he must maintain it until Roland Garros. As for the Italian, the numbers ensure he will leave Monaco with the best ranking of his career, but only a win in the final would push him into the top 10, a nice goal to contemplate during potential moments of weakness. What do you think? Is Alcaraz as much of a favorite as the experts say? What are Musetti's chances?