Analysis of the semifinals of the ATP Monte Carlo 2025: Favoritism for Alcaraz; equality in the Musetti - De Minaur

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🎾 Lorenzo Musetti vs Carlos Alcaraz

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The first major clay court tournament is coming to an end, the Masters 1000 in Monte Carlo is preparing for its conclusion after a great week of tennis, surprises like the early exit of Novak Djokovic in his first match, and statements made by Carlos Alcaraz and Alejandro Davidovich.

The two Spaniards will battle for a spot in the final, while on the other side Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will also seek to play on Sunday. Regardless of the winner, someone will inscribe their name on the Monegasque trophy for the first time. We analyze the tactical keys and predictions for both matches.

- Carlos Alcaraz vs Alejandro Davidovich, a duel of Spaniards with a single precedent

The first semifinal of the day will bring a match that few expected at the beginning of the week. Alcaraz had doubts after his inconsistent performances in Indian Wells and Miami, struggled against Fran Cerúndolo in the first set, but then dominated (3-6, 6-0, 6-1). His best form resurfaced against Daniel Altmaier (6-3, 6-1) and he showed great resilience against Arthur Fils, turning around a tight match (4-6, 7-5, 6-3).

Meanwhile, Davidovich, displaying great tennis at the start of 2025, faced a challenging draw. Despite a rollercoaster week of emotions and gameplay, he overcame all obstacles. He had to come back in his debut against Ben Shelton (6-7(2), 6-2, 6-1) and defeated Martin Etcheverry without giving him a chance (7-6(2), 6-3). However, the match against Jack Draper was a real challenge, fluctuating from one extreme to another. Nevertheless, he composed himself in time (6-3, 6-7(8), 6-4) and advanced to the quarterfinals where he displayed his best performance to conquer Alexei Popyrin (6-3, 6-2).

- Tactical keys and head-to-head between Alcaraz and Davidovich

This Spanish clash promises more equality than many might anticipate. Both excel in clay court tennis, engaging in long rallies with heavy and lifted shots or displaying remarkable angles. They seek winners when opportunities arise and are not afraid to be bold in crucial moments.

Their only encounter at the Conde de Godó in 2023 was a closely contested, varied, and entertaining match for the viewers, where Alcaraz triumphed in decisive moments of both sets, claiming victory to go on to defend his title in Barcelona two days later. Tennis fans eagerly await what might unfold in Monaco tomorrow.

- Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Minaur, a closely matched duel

The Italian and the Australian have been pleasant surprises in the Monte Carlo tournament, showcasing high-quality tennis from the onset. Musetti arrived in Monte Carlo after a modest U.S. tour and had to fight hard to defeat Yunchaokete Bu in his debut (4-6, 7-5, 6-3). He also had to work for victory against Jiri Lehecka (1-6, 7-5, 6-2) before delivering his best performance against compatriot Matteo Berrettini, dominating from start to finish (6-3, 6-3). However, his standout moment came in the quarters, eliminating the defending champion and three-time winner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, after starting with a set down yet recapturing his form to turn the match around (1-6, 6-3, 6-4).

Musetti faced obstacles, while De Minaur had a smooth journey. De Minaur was efficient and decisive. Despite a tough start against Tomas Machac (3-6, 6-0, 6-3), he dominated the round of 16 against Daniil Medvedev (6-2, 6-2) and handed a crushing defeat of 6-0, 6-0 to Grigor Dimitrov in the quarters.

- Strategic keys and showdown between Musetti and De Minaur

The two players possess contrasting playing styles. The Italian favors long points with lifted shots and wields a dangerous forehand, defending adeptly with his one-handed backhand. His virtuosity sets him apart in the circuit, although at times he can overindulge in such resources. In contrast, De Minaur embodies efficiency, control, and aggression, playing with authenticity and finesse. His flat forehand can be troublesome, and he is notably durable and challenging to beat, especially in lengthy matches typical on clay courts.

Predicting a victor is challenging. Both excel on clay, yet they have never faced off on this surface before. They have played twice, with each winning once, underscoring their equality. De Minaur triumphed in the first round of the Australian Open in 2022 (3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3), while Musetti avenged this defeat on the grass of Queen’s last year (1-6, 6-4, 6-2).

- Forecasts for the 2025 Monte Carlo ATP men's semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz 65% - 35% Alejandro Davidovich; a potentially open and fluctuating match likely to go to three sets, prolonged and evenly contested, where Alcaraz's experience and champion mentality might tip the scales.
Alex de Minaur 55% - Lorenzo Musetti 45%; probable three sets, with accumulated physical fatigue possibly affecting Musetti's performance, as De Minaur arrives fresher. This disparity in physical conditions might be the deciding factor in what is expected to be a closely matched encounter.

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