Indian Wells 2025. Women's Bracket Analysis: Tough road ahead for defending champion Swiatek, with Badosa in the way

Andrés Tomás Rico | 4 Mar 2025 | 02.55

Analysis of the Women's Indian Wells 2025 Draw. Tough road ahead for defending champion Swiatek, with Badosa in the way. Photo: Getty Images.

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After a brief stint in the Middle East, the women's circuit travels to the Californian desert to face the third WTA 1000 of the season following the surprise by Mirra Andreeva in Dubai. However, all eyes are on Iga Swiatek, the current champion of Indian Wells who arrives at the American event with doubts in her game and the need to defend the title if she doesn't want to enter a results crisis before the start of the European clay court tour. Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka, the world number one, will seek her first title in California.

But they won't be the only ones with chances for the Indian Wells title, especially in a circuit where the demand and level of play are so high that surprises can always happen. The four American players within the top 10 (Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula, Madison Keys, and Emma Navarro) aspire to great things on their home soil. Yet, Paula Badosa, the 2021 champion, is also one to watch, seeking consistency in the final rounds and arriving with a warning from the Australian Open.

1st quadrant

Potential opponents for Aryna Sabalenka: Bye - Kessler / Blinkova - Kalinina / Bronzetti / Frech - Alexandrova / Haddad Maia - Paolini / Fernandez / Kasatkina - Gauff / Keys / Navarro – Swiatek / Rybakina / Andreeva / Badosa

Potential opponents for Jasmine Paolini: Bye – Jovic / Grabher – Fernandez / Kudermetova – Kasatkina / Samsonova – Sabalenka / Haddad Maia – Keys / Gauff / Navarro – Swiatek / Rybakina / Andreeva / Badosa

The world number one has a gradually tougher draw ahead. Initially, she shouldn't have problems in her debut, but she could face McCartney Kesller, recent finalist in the WTA Austin, in the last 16. The complications start in the quarterfinals where she might meet Alexandrova and Paolini. Then in the semis, she could face Gauff, Navarro, or Keys, the player who stripped her of the Australian Open crown last January.