Who benefits and who is harmed by the change of surface in Indian Wells?

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During this past weekend, we received news that the Indian Wells tournament was changing the surface provider, switching from Plexipave after 25 years to Laykold, the same company chosen by tournaments like Miami or the US Open. This will change the conditions of the California tournament. To determine who benefits or is harmed the most by this change, we'll have to wait until the tournament begins to see how the players react, but based on what we know so far, who does this change benefit and harm the most?

Indian Wells is a special tournament within the catalogue of Masters 1000 on hard courts. Anchored in the desert, its extremely dry climate has allowed for a different style of tennis compared to its category siblings. It's no coincidence that Rafael Nadal has won there three times, while he couldn't lift the champion's title in Miami. The Indian Wells Tennis Garden possesses unique characteristics that make it the slowest hard court Masters 1000 on the circuit, similar to those played on clay courts.

Why is this? Being in the middle of the desert, the extremely dry climate causes the ball to have less air friction and travel much faster. Additionally, due to the high heat and low humidity levels, the ball is affected, bouncing higher as the temperature inside increases. When we add this to a court like Plexicave, where the ball had higher friction upon contact, we have a playing style almost like clay, with high bounces, extensive baseline exchanges, and suited for players who hit with a lot of spin.

With the switch to Laykold, one wonders where things are heading, in the most literal sense. What is Indian Wells' organization seeking? Are they aiming to increase court speed? Or are they merely looking for more sustainable courts that last longer, endure less wear, and are better for the players? It's worth remembering that, according to provider Laykold, their courts are more eco-friendly, durable, and reduce the risk of injury by 10% with greater cushioning.
This is something we won't know unless the tournament director openly explains it. What we can infer is that, transitioning to Laykold, with characteristics faster than Plexicave, and with the CPI increasing from an average of 30 points (or less) in recent years to over 36 in 2024, it seems their intention is to raise court speed.

Can a tournament alter court speed?

Masters 1000 tournaments have their own preferences. Organizers can choose which type of tournament to offer or which player/s to benefit, hence why they select one court over another. This shouldn't surprise anyone since there are dozens of statements from former tournament directors in the archives stating they chose faster or slower courts to favor specific players. It's understandable. It's their tournament, and they do what's most economically beneficial to ensure the players they desire go as far as possible and increase ticket sales, sponsorships, and television revenues.

Faced with this fact, all that's left is to adapt in the best possible way. Those who benefit from the change will hardly complain, while those who are less fond of the new conditions may voice their discontent. This has been the case throughout the history of all tournaments. Players look out for themselves, thus speaking in their own interests, much like the tournaments do.

How will the surface change affect the gameplay?

At first glance, as mentioned before, it's hard to determine since the playing conditions aren't solely dependent on the surface. The weather is a crucial factor to consider, and current weather forecasts anticipate a relatively cooler tournament, possibly rainy. Predictions mention rain at the start of the tournament and on Thursday, Friday, and Sunday of the second week, with maximum temperatures between 17 and 20 degrees.

In other words, if the forecasts turn out to be accurate, and Indian Wells experiences these temperatures during this edition, the game will be faster as the ball bounce will be lower due to the cooler weather. This must be coupled with any potential humidity resulting from rain, along with the new surface selected by the organizers, which could be quicker than in prior years.

As we state, until the tournament arrives, and we observe the weather and how the surface responds to the temperature, we won't know for sure if the game will be faster or slower than in previous years. However, based on forecasts, it suggests that the speed will be greater.

Who might benefit from this change?

In a low-bouncing court with faster conditions, those who benefit are players with flatter shots and a more direct style of play. That is, players with a powerful serve and less spin on both their forehand and backhand. One name that stands out among them is undoubtedly Jannik Sinner. Although the Italian won't participate in 2025, for the upcoming years, he is likely to feel more comfortable than in past editions where he lost in the semi-finals to Alcaraz in 2023 and 2024, struggling against the high ball from the Spaniard.

Local players like Shelton, Fritz, or Tiafoe, among others, will also appreciate having slightly faster conditions in Indian Wells, as the tournament's significant slowness made them somewhat uncomfortable. Another player who may benefit somewhat is Novak Djokovic, returning to the Californian tournament, although the Serbian could also adapt perfectly to a slower court; it's slightly preferable for him that the courts are faster.

Who might be disadvantaged?

Undoubtedly, the most affected by an increase in court speed at Indian Wells and the loss of punch in their shots would be Carlos Alcaraz. Depending on how Laykold responds to the climate, Carlos poses a threat with his numbers in this tournament. His kick serve caused major damage by making the ball bounce high, along with his forehand, one of the most powerful and spin-induced shots on the circuit.

While Alcaraz has triumphed at Miami and the US Open, tournaments using Laykold, it doesn't mean it's better for him than Plexipave. The Murcian will have to adapt to the conditions; what this implies is that he might need to change his approach if his shots don't bounce as high as before. He may have to opt for a more direct playstyle with less spin.

Other players who could be primarily affected by this change would be Casper Ruud, Arthur Fils, Hamad Medjedovic, Jiri Lehecka, and Nico Jarry, players using a lot of spin to trouble opponents. Like Carlos, these players might need to switch to a more direct style of play to advance far in Indian Wells. The impact on the last two years' runner-up, Daniil Medvedev, is somewhat uncertain, as he has also performed well on fast hard courts. He might welcome a bit more speed as he has previously complained about Indian Wells' sluggishness.

In just a few days, with the players already there, we'll learn from them directly whether the conditions are similar to previous years or have changed. We'll see if the change is significant or if the shift to Laykold turns out to be somewhat anecdotal in the end.

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, ¿A quién favorece y a quién perjudica el cambio de superficie en Indian Wells?