Australian Open 2025: Analysis of the quarterfinals. Glory awaits

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🎾 Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz

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The second week of each Grand Slam triggers an inexplicable excitement that reaches one of its peaks in the lead-up to the quarterfinals. This Australian Open 2025 is no different, especially after several unforgettable days of competition that have mixed new generations ready to make a breakthrough, a great performance by some of the top contenders, some minor controversies, and thrilling matches to kick off the quarterfinals day, highlighting, of course, the clash between Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. What are the keys to each match? We show them in the analysis of the penultimate round of competition.

JANNIK SINNER (1) vs ALEX DE MIÑAUR (8)

The top contenders to advance to the quarterfinals from the first bracket have more than lived up to expectations to offer us a match that will delight the local crowd. A tough challenge for de Miñaur, who has only taken one set from the Italian in nine encounters (Jannik leads 9-0), but arrives at the meeting in his best form ever, reaching this round for the first time at home and having dropped just one set along the way.

Not the case for the Italian, who has expressed physical distress after his match against Rune, experiencing some discomfort or illness he did not want to investigate further, preventing him even from warming up before his round of 16 match. This is an opening that the Australian clings to, condemned to suffer stylistically against someone who excels in attack (hits harder) and matches him in defense (not as quick, but his footwork and change of directions are nothing short of Demon). De Miñaur will have to break out of his flat ball rhythm and surprise with constant changes of pace, working the court with angles and, above all, being an impenetrable wall that frustrates Jannik and forces him to worry about his physical condition at some point. That, plus the backing of his crowd, are his lifelines against a rival who is a true nightmare for him.

Odds: Sinner 70%-30% de Miñaur

BEN SHELTON (21) vs LORENZO SONEGO

2025 was supposed to be a redemption season for Shelton, who despite being very young still left a bitter taste in fans' mouths over the past year. We didn't see the leap in quality we expected in his second season as a professional, but the American is proving in this tournament that his maturation process is slow but steady. Hitting with great assurance, causing damage with his crosscourt forehand, and finding an improved composure in key moments, Ben is on the verge of achieving his best historical result in Grand Slams.

He will face the always tough Sonego, the one responsible for cutting short the hopes of young promises (defeating Fonseca and Tien, halting the dreams of many). Beyond what is apparent, 'Sonny' has worked very hard in a preseason that involved a change of coach, giving more importance to a serve that is wreaking havoc in Melbourne and that he will undoubtedly need to match in the slugfest against Ben. The match will entail a constant search by both to find the forehand on their first shot after the serve, and perhaps Shelton's left-handedness perfectly counters the more comfortable tennis pattern for Lorenzo (inverted crosscourt forehand from a right-hander), while his own forehand could pound Sonego's backhand throughout the match. A very open match, although Shelton seems to have slightly more potent weapons to secure the victory.

Odds: Shelton 60%-40% Sonego

NOVAK DJOKOVIC (7) vs CARLOS ALCARAZ (3)

Possibly the most desired and anticipated match by the tennis community today. The most decorated player in history against the most exciting project (now a reality) in decades. Djokovic and Alcaraz have not disappointed in each encounter, with two styles that blend perfectly to offer us matches that have already made history in this sport. They had never faced each other before the semifinals of a Grand Slam, nor in a five-set match on hard courts... you know, there is always a first time for everything.

Will a Djokovic nearing 38 be able to match the physicality of a player 16 years younger? The margin for error provided by the five sets is a competitive advantage for Carlos that the Serbian must neutralize from the start. A strong start, with short service games due to a high percentage of first serves, is shaping up as the main escape route for a player with unwavering faith in achieving his 25th Grand Slam. Alcaraz knows he plays with time on his side, but he must by no means rush if errors accumulate, as he experienced in last year's quarterfinals against Alexander Zverev. His second serves, which have shone throughout the tournament, should also target Djokovic's feet, creating short balls that he can finish off with a forehand that has been formidable throughout the tournament. A high-level match with many tactical incentives that we have already analyzed in greater depth on this website.

Odds: Djokovic 49%-51% Alcaraz

TOMMY PAUL (12) vs ALEXANDER ZVEREV (2)

The imperial feelings of Sascha during the first week slightly dissipated after his performance against Ugo Humbert in the round of 16, where he raised some doubts and appeared somewhat more erratic from the baseline. Nevertheless, his performance in the first week was exactly what he needed: a devastating serve that is already warming up, enough solidity to frustrate his opponents, and minimal physical and mental strain to focus all his efforts on the championship matches.

These are strong arguments for his toughest test so far, facing a Paul who is flying under the radar but has shown a significant growth curve. He went from needing a fifth set in his debut against O'Connell to dominating in his last two matches, although the quality leap coming his way will require him to be more prepared than ever. This is the barrier that troubles him most: his last victory over a top-20 player in a Grand Slam came before the pandemic, a fact that exemplifies the gap separating him from the top tier of the elite. To assume he will break this streak against a very authoritative Zverev, who will capitalize on the significant number of free points he will earn with the level of serving he has been showing, is a exercise of faith that cannot be dismissed, but it distances him from the pre-match favoritism.

Odds: Paul 30%-70% Zverev

This news is an automatic translation. You can read the original news, Open de Australia 2025: Análisis de los cuartos de final. La gloria espera