Australian Open 2025. Analysis of the men's draw: Hellish path for the favorites, with Alcaraz and Djokovic in the same section

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 9 Jan 2025 | 05.57

Analysis of the Australian Open 2025 field. Photo: gettyimages

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One of the most important moments of every Grand Slam is the draw ceremony, and in this 2025 Australian Open, it was no exception. The title favorites already know their potential path to glory in Melbourne. We pay special attention to what fate has in store for Jannik Sinner, as well as Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, who could make history for different reasons in this event.

All eyes of the tennis world are focused on the 2025 Australian Open, a tournament that could become unforgettable and historic, with numerous incentives for such. Jannik Sinner aims to defend his title and continue demonstrating the superiority he displayed last year, Carlos Alcaraz seeks to establish himself as the youngest player of all time to complete the Grand Slam, while Novak Djokovic pursues his 100th title and 25th Grand Slam. Furthermore, the competition will be fierce with Alexander Zverev and many others ready to challenge the established power.

- Analysis of the men's draw of the 2025 Australian Open

1st Quadrant

Potential opponents of Jannik Sinner: Jarry - Daniel/Schoolkate - Cobolli/Etcheverry - Hurkacz/Rune - De Miñaur/Tsitsipas - Fritz/Medvedev - Alcaraz/Zverev/Djokovic

Potential opponents of Álex de Miñaur: Van de Zandschulp - Coria/Qualy - Cerúndolo/Bergs - Tsitsipas/Khachanov - Sinner/Rune/Hurkacz - Fritz/Medvedev - Alcaraz/Zverev/Djokovic

The world number 1 will face a tough opponent to start the tournament, as Jarry poses a significant threat if in form. The second round may offer a bit more tranquility, but hostilities will resume in the third round where Cobolli and Etcheverry could bring excitement following a potentially thrilling first-round match. Hurkacz and Rune will need to overcome challenges like Berrettini, Griekspoor, or Zhang to meet each other in the round of 16, where they would clash with Jannik.

Regarding De Miñaur's path, the Australian should have no problems reaching the second week, although Cerúndolo could be a dangerous opponent, meeting with a highly competitive rival in the round of 16, such as Tsitsipas or Khachanov. De Miñaur is fortunate enough to at least leverage his status as a seeded player and advance to the quarterfinals, where Sinner would be an almost insurmountable obstacle.

2nd Quadrant

Potential opponents of Taylor Fritz: Brooksby - Coric/Qualy - Mpetshi Perricard/Monfils - Shelton/Musetti - Medvedev/Rublev - Sinner/De Miñaur - Alcaraz/Zverev/Djokovic

Potential opponents of Daniil Medvedev: Samrej - Ugo Carabelli / Qualy - Popyrin/Hijikata - Rublev/Tiafoe - Fritz/Musetti - Sinner/De Miñaur - Alcaraz/Zverev/Djokovic

The American and the Russian will have a tough challenge to meet in the hypothetical quarterfinals, as even though they both have relatively calm initial rounds, Taylor will have to face the strong shots of Mpetshi Perricard or the experience of Monfils in the third round, with both French players squaring off in the first round. Popyrin could pose a threat to Medvedev, but the real challenges would arise in the round of 16, with notable names like Shelton, Musetti, Rublev, Tiafoe, and even Shapovalov, Bautista, Carreño, and Wawrinka also in this sector.

3rd Quadrant

Potential opponents of Novak Djokovic: Basavareddy - Kotov/Qualy - Machac/Opelka - Dimitrov/Lehecka - Alcaraz/Draper - Zverev/Ruud - Sinner/Fritz/Medvedev

Potential opponents of Carlos Alcaraz: Shevchenko - Nishioka/Qualy - Thompson/Muller/Borges - Draper/Korda - Djokovic/Dimitrov - Zverev/Ruud - Sinner/Fritz/Medvedev

A daunting prospect awaits Djokovic during the first week, where he won't have much room for relaxation. Starting against the young Basavareddy will be a real litmus test for the Serbian, well aware of the rising trend of the young American. The second round might offer a bit more comfort, but the third round presents imposing names like Machac or Opelka, two very threatening players. Facing potential opponents in the round of 16 like Dimitrov or Lehecka doesn't inspire much calm either.

However, the most challenging part would be facing Alcaraz if he manages to overcome those initial challenges. The Spaniard will face three demanding early-round matches but should progress while gaining rhythm and confidence. In the round of 16, the competition won't be particularly deadly unless Draper is in top physical form, which is uncertain, and if Korda emerges definitively.

4th Quadrant

Potential opponents of Casper Ruud: Munar - Mensik/Qualy - Auger-Aliassime/Davidovich - Paul/Tabilo - Zverev/Humbert - Alcaraz/Djokovic - Sinner/Fritz/Medvedev

Potential opponents of Alexander Zverev: Pouille - Darderi/Martínez - Báez/Kyrgios - Humbert/Fils - Ruud/Paul - Alcaraz/Djokovic - Sinner/Fritz/Medvedev

The German seems to be the big beneficiary of this draw, with a relatively straightforward first week and the most manageable potential opponent in the quarterfinals. Ruud doesn't inspire much confidence, especially considering the presence of competitive players like Mensik, Shang, Davidovich, Struff, Auger-Aliassime, or Paul in his section. This section of the draw is wide open, and the potential opponent in the quarterfinals for Sascha lacks a particularly lethal threat, unless Kyrgios is free of concerns and Fils or Humbert perform at a superlative level.