These are the scenarios in the battle for the number 1 between Swiatek and Sabalenka in the WTA Finals 2024

Mónica Barberán Munera | 25 Oct 2024 | 14.15

Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek at the WTA Finals 2023. Photo: Getty.

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One of the greatest rivalries on the women's circuit will once again take center stage at the WTA Finals for the second consecutive year. The world number 1 ranking will be up for grabs again in the last week of competition, with Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek as the only ones who can finish the year at the top of the rankings. Currently, it is the Belarussian who holds the power after her recent title in Wuhan, while the Polish player has not competed since the US Open due to the time she took in finding a new coach. Thus, we return to the same scenario as last year with the number 1 spot at stake between the two best players in the world. Who will come out on top?

In 2023, Sabalenka also reached the WTA Finals in the top spot in the rankings after taking it from the Polish player in very similar circumstances to what we are seeing this year. In September, after the 2023 US Open, the Belarussian led the rankings for the first time until Iga took back the reins after winning the Masters tournament in November. There, the Polish player won her first WTA Finals title undefeated, even defeating her biggest rival in the semifinals. Since then, Swiatek has held the number 1 position uninterruptedly until now, and although she has a chance to finish the year as previously, Sabalenka has the advantage. Let's see what each of them needs to do to secure that top spot.

Possible Scenarios in the WTA Finals

First, to consider possible scenarios, we need to take into account the points difference. Swiatek is defending the title, which amounts to 1,500 points since she didn't lose any matches last year. Meanwhile, Sabalenka is defending fewer points, only 625. Therefore, we need to consider this subtraction and the points that both will lose as a penalty for not playing the mandatory 6 WTA 500 tournaments per year. Iga would start the WTA Finals with 7,970 points, and Sabalenka with 9,016, which means they would maintain a difference of 1,046 points. Taking these data into account:

Sabalenka will be number 1 if she wins all three Round Robin matches, regardless of Swiatek's performance.
Even if Sabalenka wins only one or two RR matches, she will still have opportunities to become number 1 if she reaches the final.
If Swiatek reaches the final but Sabalenka wins the title, the Belarussian will be the number 1.
If Swiatek loses a match in the RR, Aryna only needs to win two matches to be number 1.
If Swiatek loses two matches in the RR, Sabalenka only needs to win one match.
Swiatek will be number 1 if she wins the title undefeated and Sabalenka wins only two RR matches and loses in the semifinals.