This is what Zverev and Alcaraz need to snatch number 1 from Sinner before his return

Diego Jiménez Rubio | 27 Feb 2025 | 15.52

Zverev and Alcaraz, with options to snatch the number 1 spot from Sinner. Photo: gettyimages

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The hegemony imposed by Jannik Sinner for months has given him such an advantage in the ATP ranking that, not even with a three-month suspension from competing, it is easy for him to lose the world number 1 spot. Nevertheless, both Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz have real chances of surpassing him before the Rome tournament, when the Italian returns to competition.

One of the big questions that plagued the minds of everyone in the tennis world upon learning of Jannik Sinner's suspension, was whether his hold on the ATP ranking number 1 was guaranteed or if there were real possibilities of him returning to the courts having been ousted from that position. It is necessary to use the calculator and theorize on what the four Masters 1000 tournaments that the Italian will miss, as well as other smaller events, may entail in order to assess the candidacies of Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz to surpass him.

- Jannik Sinner: 9,730 points he will have at the start of the Rome tournament

While it is true that he has his place at number 1 secured until the beginning of the Monte Carlo tournament, Sinner will see his points drop by a staggering 1,600 during his time away from competition. This leaves him at the mercy of his pursuers, although the ample margin he holds gives him high chances of returning to competition while at the top of the ATP ranking.

- Alexander Zverev: 11,785 points he can have at most at the start of the Rome tournament

The opportunity that the German has missed in the Latin American tour, with his early defeats in Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, and Acapulco, is evident. What could have been a very important points reservoir has turned into a source of distrust and the powerful, heartbreaking feeling that he has not been able to handle the pressure of being on the verge of being number 1 in the short term. Nonetheless, they still have chances. He can accumulate a maximum of 3,650 points between the four Masters 1000 and the Munich tournament. Therefore, he needs to win two Masters 1000 and reach advanced rounds in the other two.

- Carlos Alcaraz: 10,610 points he can have at most at the start of the Rome tournament

The Murcian has little margin for error if he wants to vie for regaining a crown that he has not worn for too long and, what is more worrisome, that he has not earned in recent months. It all hinges on winning Indian Wells, thus defending the 1,000 points from last year's title. If he achieves this, he would need to deliver a strong performance in Miami and land on the clay court swing ready to emulate his past doubles in Barcelona and Madrid, as well as to compete well in Monte Carlo and Rome. He only defends 200 points in the clay tournaments before Rome, so if he completes a successful Sunshine Double, he would earn the right to dream.